![]() Unfortunately, neither of these are necessarily true. Likewise, it's not much of a stretch to think a trade with a high probability of profit will be profitable in the long run. We intuitively think that if something has a high win rate, it is a good trade and will make us money. ![]() The problem is that we traders often conflate both Win Rate and Probability of Profit with Expectancy. Can you explain where the 80 deltas are on the option chain as I am accustomed to seeing the 50 deltas being at the money? Are you selling an in the money strike? If so, wouldn’t that be a lot more risky than buying a 20 Delta put or call? Thanks " Hey Scott. On the podcast you discussed selling the 80 deltas. I like selling the 20 to 30 delta strikes but have fallen victim to my many winners getting really hurt by my few losers. Scott Asks: "I’ve been trading options for about five years and I mostly sell vertical puts and calls.
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